ZHAO Yibin,WANG Fuchang,REN Qingqing,et al.Earthquake risk analysis in the middle of Bayan Har block based on generalized extreme value distribution[J].,2023,39(01):209-217.[doi:10.19994/j.cnki.WEE.2023.0023]





Earthquake risk analysis in the middle of Bayan Har block based on generalized extreme value distribution
ZHAO Yibin WANG Fuchang REN Qingqing ZHANG Yanfang QIAN Xiaoshi
Department of Basic, Institute of Disaster Prevention Technology, Sanhe 065201,China
广义极值分布 地震危险性 重现期 重现水平 极大似然估计
generalized extremum distribution seismic risk reoccurrence period reoccurrence level maximum likelihood estimations
本文对广义极值分布模型的构建机理进行了深入详细的阐述, 给出了逻辑意义更加合理的的重现期和重现水平定义,以及相关的地震危险性评价指标。在此基础上,应用构建模型对巴颜喀拉块体中部的地震危险性做了客观的评价,得出巴颜喀拉块体中部每年的平均最大发震为Ms5.1, 每20年发生Ms6.0以上强震可能性超过97%, Ms7.5左右的超强震约100年一遇,块体内部孕育地震的能量积累迅速。
The construction principle of generalized extreme value distribution(GEV)model is described in detail in this paper. The more reasonable definition of recurrence interval and recurrence level, as well as related index of seismic risk are given. Earthquake risk in the middle of Bayan Har block is objectively evaluated by using the GEV model. It is concluded that the annual average maximum magnitude in the middle of Bayan Har block is 5.1. The possibility of earthquakes with a magnitude 6 is more than 97% every 20 years. The super strong earthquakes with a magnitude about 7.5 occur once every 100 years and the energy for earthquake preparation in the block accumulates rapidly.


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收稿日期:2022-02-11; 修回日期:2022-04-22
基金项目:廊坊市科学技术研究与发展计划自筹经费项目(2022011019); 河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(ZD2022160); 中央高校基本科研业务费项目( ZY20215140)
作者简介:赵宜宾(1976 —),男,教授,本科,主要从事极值理论建模、大数据分析、模拟仿真相关领域的研究. E-mail:zhaoyibin5362@126.com
通讯作者:张艳芳(1979 —),女,副教授,硕士,主要从事系统建模仿真、运筹优化、大数据统计分析相关领域的研究. E-mail: zyf@cidp.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01