[1](孙 海,刘孟佳,姜 慧,等.考虑震害因子耦合作用的砌体建筑群破坏概率模型研究[J].世界地震工程,2023,39(02):031-41.[doi:10.19994/j.cnki.WEE.2023.0027 ]
 (SUN Hai,LIU Mengjia,JIANG Hui,et al.Research on damage probability model for masonry building groups considering the coupling effect of seismic factors[J].,2023,39(02):031-41.[doi:10.19994/j.cnki.WEE.2023.0027 ]
点击复制

考虑震害因子耦合作用的砌体建筑群破坏概率模型研究
分享到:

《世界地震工程》[ISSN:/CN:]

卷:
39
期数:
2023年02期
页码:
031-41
栏目:
常规论文
出版日期:
2023-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on damage probability model for masonry building groups considering the coupling effect of seismic factors
文章编号:
1007-6069(2023)02-0031-11
作者:
(孙 海12刘孟佳1姜 慧3阮雪景4邢启航1高惠瑛1)
1. 中国海洋大学 工程学院,山东 青岛 266100; 2. 中国海洋大学 海洋生态与环境教育部重点实验室,山东 青岛 266100; 3. 广东省地震局 地震监测和减灾技术中国地震局重点实验室,广东 广州 510070; 4. 青岛农业大学 建筑工程学院,山东 青岛 266109
Author(s):
(SUN Hai12 LIU Mengjia1 JIANG Hui3 RUAN Xuejing4 XING Qihang1 GAO Huiying1)
1. College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environment,
关键词:
砌体建筑群 震害矩阵 概率模型 震害预测 华南地区
Keywords:
masonry buildings earthquake damage matrix probabilistic model earthquake damage prediction in South China
分类号:
X43;TV122
DOI:
10.19994/j.cnki.WEE.2023.0027
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
砌体建筑群在地震中往往破坏严重损失巨大,合理评估地震作用对不同种类砌体结构造成破坏的风险变得至关重要。传统基于后验概率的地震危险性分析方法忽略了砌体建筑个体差异性的影响,未深入考虑多种震害因子的耦合作用。本文以华南地区砌体建筑群为例,开发了一种集成概率方法来对城市砌体结构的破坏风险进行建模,考虑建筑年代、层数、使用用途和墙厚四类震害因子的耦合影响,采用(Kolmogorov-Smirnov)K-S检验,在设定地震动参数下选取Gaussian分布、Log-Normal分布、Gumbel分布和Beta分布四种概率分布对该地区砌体建筑物的破坏状态概率分布参数进行拟合。通过均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error)RMSE进行拟合优度评价,最终建立基于Gaussian分布和Log-Normal分布的砌体建筑物破坏联合概率模型。最后,以华南地区三个城市典型砌体建筑物为例进行实例对比验证,将基于本文建立的建筑破坏概率模型推算出的砌体建筑群震害矩阵与基于单体结构分析得到的震害矩阵进行对比,与理论值最大偏差为0.033 3。研究表明:本文构建的集成概率方法能够获得更加合理的城市砌体建筑物震害矩阵,提供了考虑结构固有不确定性和随机不确定性的有效途径,有助于推动城市建筑韧性评价和设计理论的发展。
Abstract:
Masonry buildings often cause considerable losses in earthquakes, it is very important to reasonably assess the risk of seismic damage to different types of masonry structures. The traditional method of seismic hazard analysis based on posterior probability ignores the influence of individual difference of masonry buildings and does not consider the coupling effect of various seismic damage factors. Taking masonry buildings in South China as an example, this paper developed an integrated probability method to model the damage risk of urban masonry structures, considering the coupling effects of four earthquake damage factors: building structure, age, number of floors and use. K-S test was used to fit the probability distribution parameters of failure state of masonry buildings in this area by selecting Gaussian distribution, log-Normal distribution, Gumbel distribution and Beta distribution under the setting of ground motion parameters. The root means square error RMSE was chosen to evaluate the goodness-of-fit. Finally, a joint probability model of masonry building damage was established based on Gaussian and Log-Normal distributions. Taking typical masonry buildings in three cities in South China for example comparison and verification, the earthquake damage matrix of masonry buildings calculated based on the building failure probability model established in this paper is compared with the earthquake damage matrix based on the analysis of single structure, and the maximum deviation from the actual value is 0.0333.The results show that the integrated probability method can obtain a more reasonable and universal earthquake damage matrix of urban masonry buildings, which provides an effective way to consider the inherent and random uncertainties of structures, and contributes to the development of urban building resilience evaluation and design theory.

参考文献/References:

[1] 李静, 陈健云. 城市群体建筑物震害类比预测方法研究及应用[J]. 工程管理学报, 2011, 25(2): 152-156.
LI Jing, CHEN Jianyun. Application of analogue prediction for seismic damage of urban building stocks[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2011, 25(2): 152-156.(in Chinese)
[2] 王华娟. 建筑群地震风险估计概率模型的研究[D]. 青岛: 中国海洋大学, 2007.
WANG Huajuan. Research on Probability Model of Seismic Risk Estimation for Building Group[D]. Qingdao: Ocean University of China, 2007.(in Chinese)
[3] 尹之潜. 地震灾害及损失预测方法[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1995.
YIN Zhiqian. Earthquake Disaster and Loss Prediction Method[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1995.(in Chinese)
[4] 姜淑珍. 多层砖房震害预测方法评述[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2004, 13(6): 117-121.
JIANG Shuzhen. Seismic damage prediction method of multistory brick buildings[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2004, 13(6): 117-121.(in Chinese)
[5] 万卫, 薄景山, 李孝波, 等. 城市建筑物震害快速判定预测方法[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2014, 23(3): 230-236.
WAN Wei, BO Jingshan, LI Xiaobo, et al. Rapid prediction and discrimination of earthquake damage to urban buildings[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2014, 23(3): 230-236.(in Chinese)
[6] 魏巍, 冯启民. 几种push-over分析方法对比研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2002, 22(4): 66-73.
WEI Wei, FENG Qimin. Research on comparison of several push-over analysis methods[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2002, 22(4): 66-73.(in Chinese)
[7] 张令心, 鲁若帆, 朱柏洁. 砖砌体房屋非线性地震反应分析方法和破坏状态指标的确定与验证[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2021, 41(3): 1-10.
ZHANG Lingxin, LU Ruofan, ZHU Baijie. Determination and verification for the nonlinear seismic response analysis method and the damage state index of brick masonry buildings[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2021, 41(3): 1-10.(in Chinese)
[8] 钟德理, 冯启民. 基于地震动参数的建筑物震害研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2004, 24(5): 46-51.
ZHONG Deli, FENG Qimin. Investigation on building destruction based on seismic coefficient[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2004, 24(5): 46-51.(in Chinese)
[9] 冯启民, 王华娟. 群体建筑物地震破坏概率模型研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2007, 27(4): 24-29.
FENG Qimin, WANG Huajuan. A research on seismic damage probabilistic model for building group[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2007, 27(4): 24-29.(in Chinese)
[10] 王磊, 孙海, 高惠瑛, 等. 砌体和钢混结构建筑群的破坏概率模型研究[J]. 世界地震工程, 2018, 34(3): 146-152.
WANG Lei, SUN Hai, GAO Huiying, et al. Research on seism damage probabilistic model for masonry and steel-concrete structure building group[J]. World Earthquake Engineering, 2018, 34(3): 146-152.(in Chinese)
[11] 胡少卿, 孙柏涛, 王东明, 等. 经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2007, 27(6): 46-50.
HU Shaoqing, SUN Baitao, WANG Dongming, et al. Approach to making empirical earthquake damage matrix[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2007, 27(6): 46-50.(in Chinese)
[12] 陈健云, 毕可为, 温瑞智. 一种适于震后快速评估的群体易损性分析方法[J]. 震灾防御技术, 2009, 4(2): 174-181.
CHEN Jianyun, BI Kewei, WEN Ruizhi. A fast approach of group vulnerability evaluation for post-earthquake[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2009, 4(2): 174-181.(in Chinese)
[13] 姜绍飞, 艾武福, 李宁, 等. 群体砌体建筑的易损性分析及震害预测[J]. 福州大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, 39(5): 738-747.
JIANG Shaofei, AI Wufu, LI Ning, et al. Vulnerability analysis and earthquake damage prediction of masonry building group[J]. Journal of Fuzhou University(Natural Science Edition), 2011, 39(5): 738-747.(in Chinese)
[14] 张桂欣, 孙柏涛. 基于模糊层次分析的建筑物单体震害预测方法研究[J]. 工程力学, 2018, 35(12): 185-193, 202.
ZHANG Guixin, SUN Baitao. Seismic damage prediction for a single building based on a fuzzy analytical hierarchy approach[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2018, 35(12): 185-193, 202.(in Chinese)
[15] GB/T24335 — 2009建(构)筑物地震破坏等级划分[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社,2009.
GB/T24335 — 2009 Classification of Earthquake Damage to Buildings and Special Structures [S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 2009.(in Chinese)
[16] 清华大学土木工程结构专家组, 西南交通大学土木工程结构专家组, 北京交通大学土木工程结构专家组, 等. 汶川地震建筑震害分析[J]. 建筑结构学报, 2008, 29(4): 1-9.
Civil Engineering Structure Expert Group of Tsinghua University, Civil Engineering Structure Expert Group of Southwest Jiaotong University, Civil Engineering Structure Expert group of Beijing Jiaotong University.et al. Analysis on seismic damage of buildings in the Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Journal of Building Structures, 2008, 29(4): 1-9.(in Chinese)
[17] GB/T17742 — 2020 中国地震烈度表[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2020.
GB/T17742 — 2020 The Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale [S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 2020.(in Chinese)
[18] 贾晗曦, 林均岐, 刘金龙. 建筑结构地震易损性分析研究综述[J]. 震灾防御技术, 2019, 14(1): 42-51.
JIA Hanxi, LIN Junqi, LIU Jinlong. Review of seismic fragility analysis of building structure[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2019, 14(1): 42-51.(in Chinese)
[19] 尹之潜, 杨淑文. 地震损失分析与设防标准[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 2004.
YIN Zhiqian, YANG Shuwen. Seismic Loss Analysis and Fortification Standards[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 2004.(in Chinese)
[20] 胡少卿, 孙柏涛, 王东明. 基于建筑物易损性分类的群体震害预测方法研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2010, 30(3): 96-101.
HU Shaoqing, SUN Baitao, WANG Dongming. A method for earthquake damage prediction of building group based on building vulnerability classification[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2010, 30(3): 96-101.(in Chinese)
[21] 全国农居房屋结构地震易损性分析报告[R]. 青岛:中国海洋大学.
Seismic Vulnerability Analysis of Agricultural Residential Buildings in China [R]. Qingdao: Ocean University of China.(in Chinese)
[22] FRANGOPOL D M. Probability concepts in engineering: emphasis on applications to civil and environmental engineering[J]. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2008, 4(5): 413-414.
[23] GB50023 — 2009 建筑抗震鉴定标准[S]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2009.
GB50023 — 2009 Standard for Seismic Appraisal of Buildings[S]. Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press, 2009.(in Chinese)
[24] GB50011 — 2010 建筑抗震设计规范[S]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2010.
GB50011 — 2010 Code for Seismic Design of Buildings[S]. Beijing: China Architecture&Building Press, 2010.(in Chinese)

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-05-30; 修回日期:2022-07-23
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(U1901602-05,41906185,52071307); 山东省科技重大专项(2020CXGC010702); 基于地震风险评估的强震灾害情景构建及应用示范
作者简介:孙 海(1986—),男,博士后,硕士生导师,副教授(研究员),主要从事韧性理论视角下的城市安全减灾与关键技术研究. E-mail: sunhai@ouc.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01